About the learning center: For those who prefer to have a sequential learning experience instead of randomly browsing the website, follow the learning center instructions below. There is a categorization table as to which website sections may be of interest to different visitor types.
Qualify your interest in the learning center: If you are surprised by the results below and interested to learn how such results can be accurately* computed, the learning center is for you.
By the year 2075, the planet only heats 0.21°C from greenhouse gases
If all 3 GHGs doubled from today, the planet only heats 0.57°C For that doubling, only 0.09°C is from the doubling of CH4 and N2O Note regarding calculator feature updates: You may have seen earlier Climate Bell results of 0.13°C instead of 0.22°C, and 0.48°C instead of 0.57°C. These are from an early release of the calculator. Since then, many features have been added including O3 modeling, fitting parameters for the GHGs, and cloud-top scoping to evaluate the drop in scattering (absorption) from an elevated blackbody source - the cloud-tops. Eventually the scenarios library will be updated using the new version of the calculator. |
* How computational accuracy is assured: Results are computed from the detailed physics of the greenhouse gas effect using the published greenhouse gas absorption spectrum data and the rising trend curves for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). The response of the GHG gases to Earth's infrared emission are collectively integrated together and combined with the absorption spectrum data for ozone (O3) and water vapor (H2O) to achieve accuracy. Using a detailed piece-wise integration of the response, the effect of a change in GHGs is solved. Further explanation on accuracy is explained in the "How the calculator works" link. Climate Bell's Earth system approach simplifies the problem and yet nothing of importance to compute an accurate temperature rise is left out.
Learning center instructions:
- Please read the Home page first including the Problem Summary and Solution Summary paragraphs.
- Watch the video below, study the diagram, and read the information associated with it.
- Depending on your interests and abilities, you may select from the eight website sections in the table. Your possible interest has been suggested at three levels - "Yes" (highly recommended), "Yes", and "Less likely". Feel free to review whatever links interest you.
- Finally, read the paragraphs below the table to the bottom of the page, and pickup your diploma before you go.
Climate Bell's GHG calculator computes Earth's temperature rise for increasing GHGs by following the photon power transfer from the GHG effect, an effect described in the video.
A representative diagram is on the right. The only input and output to Earth's otherwise closed system are photons which must balance to achieve equilibrium. |
It is important to realize that although the internal workings of the climate are very complex, a partitioning of the problem greatly simplifies the ability to compute accurate results. That partitioning simplification includes a) the Climate Bell concept and definition of total scattering in a wavelength region, b) the bounding of the analysis in the Earth system, and c) the computation of the power retained (PR) by the Earth system.
Climate Bell recommended sequence with links - just click |
Description of the page content |
Any website visitor likely having interest? |
Scientist or researcher likely having interest? |
Mitigation policy worker likely having interest? |
Why Climate Bell was launched |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Views of the Climate Bell founder |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Views on mitigation policies |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Technical GHG photon physics explanation |
Less likely |
Yes |
Less likely |
|
Problems (both methods and physics) with other's models |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
Technical explanation of calculator functionality and why it works so accurately |
Less likely |
Yes |
Less likely |
|
Examples of various scenarios solved by the calculator |
Yes (see 1, 4, 9, 11, 12) |
Yes |
Yes (see 1, 4, 9, 11, 12) |
|
Instructions on downloading and running the calculator |
Less likely but try it if you have Excel |
Yes |
Less likely but try it if you have Excel |
Obstacles to becoming a climate change realist: Even with the good news results of the Climate Bell calculator, there are a few points that may help one understand some of the learning challenges many will still face in overcoming the unwarranted climate change concern. As mentioned in the Why page, the wrong analysis trap, the belief trap, the celebrity scientist trap, and for some an ego trap of not wanting to admit to having been misled from their sources. Many will struggle with these traps because of a lack of perspective, and ongoing adherence to the herd-embraced narratives on climate change that include listening to parroted baseless climate change fears. For many, until the herd shifts, they will unfortunately remain stuck. But through education there is hope that a large number of them will overcome these challenges.
Hope can come from learning: In summary, it would appear that those afflicted with climate change concerns have too simple an understanding of GHGs, an understanding that they assumed was sufficiently informative. That isn't their fault as it is a complicated and tricky topic. To use an analogy for those suffering from or promoting the climate change hysteria, it is as if they think of GHGs like feathers on owls, more is warmer, the owls are on the verge of heat stroke, and they soon could become extinct. With additional learning some people can escape a simplistic understanding and escape the fear induced on them by hearing incorrect statements or just hearing the parroting of baseless climate change fears. Of those who've originated or parroted such fears, some have done so out of ignorance and some with clear intent of a self-serving opportunity regardless of the harm they cause. By learning more about GHGs, and having the science encapsulated in an easy-to-use calculator, they are free from dependence of so called "experts", as many will realize that their concerns were unfounded. Perhaps they can even then proactively educate others.